The Consequences of a Bad Deal

"President Barack Obama has made an art form of attacking his opponents rather than substantively defending his own policies, most recently regarding the Vienna agreement on Iran's nuclear program. Essentially, Obama argues that we must either accept his wretched deal or go to war to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

As is typical, Obama posits the wrong choice, apparently to distract from the unpleasant reality that the agreement won't work. It will not prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons. So the real choice we are faced with is dealing with the consequences of military action or the consequences of a nuclear Iran. Neither is palatable, but the latter is far worse. If the real objective is stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons, pre-emptive military action is now inescapable.

This rock-and-hard-place outcome has long been foreseeable. Iran's dogged determination to become a nuclear-weapons state was fiercer and stronger than the West's frail response. Assuming Iran scrupulously complies with every provision agreed to in Vienna - an absurdly unlikely scenario given the ayatollahs' objectives and history - its ambitions for nuclear weapons will simply have been delayed eight to 10 years...

And news that a secret agreement between the IAEA and Iran that will allow Tehran to use its own inspectors at a site that has been suspected of nuclear weapons development only raises further doubts...

Nor will the deal's 'snapback' mechanism (intended to coerce Iran back into compliance if it breaches its obligations) change that reality. Tehran's belligerent response is expressly stated in the agreement's text: 'If sanctions are reinstated in whole or in part, Iran will treat that as grounds to cease performing its commitments ... in whole or in part.' Tehran does risk losing some future economic benefits should sanctions snap back, but by then it will have already cashed in the assets the deal unfreezes and signed new lucrative trade and investment contracts.

Once those benefits begin flowing all around, the pressure on world governments will only increase to ignore Iranian violations, or to treat them as minor or inadvertent, certainly not warranting the reimposition of major sanctions...

American weakness has brought us to this difficult moment. While we obsessed about its economic discomfort, Iran wore its duress with pride. It was never an even match. We now have to rely on a tiny ally to do the job for us. But unless we are ready to accept a nuclear Iran (and, in relatively short order, several other nuclear Middle Eastern states), get ready. The easy ways out disappeared long ago."