Iran may use U.N. nuclear talks to seek leverage with big powers

By Fredrik Dahl
January 22, 2013 
Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/22/us-nuclear-iran-iaea-idUSBRE90L0AH20130122

VIENNA (Reuters) - Iran may be holding back from working with a U.N.
investigation into its nuclear program to use it as a bargaining chip
in pursuit of significant sanctions relief or other concessions in
broader negotiations with world powers.

That could explain why United Nations nuclear inspectors once again
returned empty-handed after talks last week in Tehran, where they
tried to overcome obstacles to a long-stalled inquiry into suspected
atomic bomb research by Iran.

Iran has suggested at various times in the past that it would expect a
"kind of reward" for cooperating with the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA), a Western official said, making clear he saw no
rationale for this.

If this is Tehran's thinking, a year-long effort by the IAEA to
unblock its investigation looks unlikely to succeed as long as
separate diplomacy between the six major powers and Tehran remains
deadlocked.

"They don't want to offer substantive cooperation," one Western
diplomat said after the IAEA's latest stab on January 16-17 at coaxing
the Islamic Republic into starting to address questions about its
atomic activities.

Another envoy in Vienna, where the U.N. agency is based, described the
IAEA's roller-coaster negotiations with Iran as a "well-practiced
dance" by Tehran of "two steps backwards, one step forward."

The failure to achieve a breakthrough in the most recent of a series
of largely fruitless meetings between the IAEA and Iran marked another
setback for diplomatic efforts to resolve the stand-off and head off
the threat of a new Middle East war.

Both Iran and the United States, Britain, France, Germany, China and
Russia say they want to resume talks after a seven-month hiatus. But
the two sides' priorities diverge: the powers want to curb Iranian
nuclear work of potential use in developing atomic weapons, while Iran
wants sanctions scrapped and their "rights" to enrich uranium formally
recognized.

They have yet to announce a date and venue and as delays continue,
Iran is amassing more nuclear material that could be turned into bomb
fuel if refined further. Israel has threatened military action to foil
any nuclear weapons capability in Iran.

The powers, known as the P5+1 as they group the five permanent,
veto-wielding members of the U.N. Security Council along with Germany,
want peaceful guarantees on Iran's enrichment program and Iranian
transparency toward the IAEA.

Iran, which says it seeks only peaceful nuclear energy from
enrichment, is keen above all for the West to remove sanctions
expanded last year to block its economically vital oil exports.

"Tehran apparently is seeking to withhold cooperation with the IAEA in
order to increase leverage vis-a-vis the P5+1," said Daryl Kimball of
the Arms Control Association, a U.S.-based research and advocacy
group.

NO REWARD

The IAEA, whose mandate is to forestall the spread of nuclear weapons,
has been trying for a year to negotiate a framework agreement with
Iran giving its inspectors access to sites, officials and documents
for their investigation.

After the previous meeting in mid-December, the IAEA said progress had
been made and that it expected to seal the deal in this month's
session. But after the two days of talks last week it said "important
differences" remained.

A new round of IAEA-Iran discussions has been scheduled for February
13, which may allow for the global powers and Tehran to meet first to
try and make headway in the wider dispute.

"Iran might think that if it grants access now, it may be in a weaker
position to demand sanctions relief in a few week's time," said
Shashank Joshi, a senior fellow and Middle East specialist at the
Royal United Services Institute.

But the Western official said he saw no willingness among the powers
"to pay any kind of reward" to Iran if it allowed the IAEA to resume
its inquiry: "We think that is separate and it is in Iran's own
interest to cooperate with the IAEA."

The powers and Iran last met in June, when Tehran rejected demands to
halt its higher-grade enrichment and close an underground nuclear
plant in exchange for limited sanctions relief, such as an end to a
ban on imports of aviation spare parts, as well as civilian nuclear
cooperation.

"Iran has always linked the IAEA and the P5+1 talks," Cliff Kupchan at
political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said.

"They don't like what's on offer from the Western nations in the main
talks, so they're holding all their chits, including ones relevant to
the IAEA, for the main talks."

Hossein Mousavian, a former Iranian nuclear negotiator, said Iran and
the powers should agree in their next meeting a "package consisting of
all major requirements" of both sides.

"This should include technical demands of the IAEA and also address
Iranian demands for recognition of its rights for enrichment and
lifting sanctions. If so, then the IAEA would be able to have a
successful visit to Tehran," he said.