ICC, Israel, U.S.: Now what? - analysis

"There has been a whirlwind of International Criminal Court developments in recent days which could impact the preliminary review of war crimes allegations against Israel.

From the US to Sudan, Libya and Jordan, the ICC's rulings have increasingly filled in pieces of a mosaic portraying Israel's fate with mixed messages, but overall to the country's advantage...

The ICC's rejection of its prosecution's request to criminally probe the US for alleged war crimes of torture in Afghanistan is a major turning point.

There is a vibrant debate right now about how to frame the decision: Did the ICC blink when, only shortly before, the US revoked Chief Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda's visa?

Or was the decision – which said that the main reason it rejected letting the case go forward was because of the lack of cooperation from the US, and therefore, the lack of a chance of collecting evidence – about a more broad prioritization of cases which are more likely to succeed?

The ICC's decision regarding the US comes after several other countries which once cooperated with the ICC later decided to stonewall it, causing several cases to fall apart.

If the countries will not turn over defendants or witnesses, there can be no trial.

If the ICC succumbed because of US pressure, then it seems that Washington is ready to keep up the same level of pressure should the court go after Israel. And this could lead the ICC to end its four-year-long initial review of the Jewish state.

If it was based on the availability of evidence and of access to bringing the defendants to court, there is more of a mixed result.

Human rights groups and the Palestinians have provided the ICC with significant amounts of potential evidence and could also provide some witnesses.

At the same time, every sign is that Israel would refuse to provide witnesses or be willing to transfer defendants to the ICC, so it is not clear that the court could hold a standard trial even if it wanted to...

Although all of the recent developments mean that the picture is still mixed, Israel definitely is in a much stronger position in its standoff with the ICC than it was a week ago."